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亚洲生物质的需求正在快速增长。问题是，是否有足够的生物质供应来满足它？ 在这里，将探讨该地区木屑颗粒的供需平衡以及未来几年的前景。
As we have discussed in our series of blogs on the Asian biomass market, demand is growing rapidly in the region. This poses the question, will there be enough biomass supply to meet it? Here I will look at the supply-demand balance for wood pellets in the region and the outlook for the coming years.
我们的估计表明亚洲的工业颗粒需求在2018年可能达到490万吨，比2017年增加49％。韩国和日本的颗粒需求预计将继续增长。我们估计它可能会在2027年达到1300万吨。有几个因素会影响所有需求是否实现，最重要的可能是生物质的可用性。
Our estimates indicate that industrial pellet demand in Asia could reach 4.9Mt in 2018, an increase of +49% on 2017. And South Korean and Japanese pellet demand is expected to continue to grow beyond that. We estimate it could rise to 13Mt in 2027. Several factors will impact whether all that demand materialises, with perhaps the most important being the availability of biomass.
我们的2018年第二季度木屑颗粒观察报告的数据显示,全球有4400万吨/年的木屑颗粒生产能力（供暖和工业），其中近600万吨是亚洲，澳大利亚和加拿大西部的工业产能。有关各国供应能力和项目的更深入细分，请参阅亚太生物质报告。
Data from our Q2 2018 Outlook for Wood Pellets report shows that globally there is 44Mt/y of wood pellet production capacity (heating and industrial) and almost 6Mt/y of that is industrial capacity in Asia, Australia and western Canada. For a more in-depth breakdown of supply capacity and projects in the pipeline by country please refer to our Asia Pacific biomass report.
目前有足够的供应来满足该地区的需求，但从我们的数据可以清楚地看出，如果供应能够满足需求，则需要更多的投资。日本公用事业公司正在考虑上游投资以确保他们所需的供应。此外，日本用户提供10至15年的承购合同，这些合同已获得关税补贴，将吸引投资者支持新的供应能力。到目前为止，趋势是日本公用事业公司已经与Engie，Pinnacle和Enviva（通常通过日本贸易公司）等知名行业参与者签订了供应合同，但随着买家扩大其净值，我们可能会看到更多的新成员。
Currently there is enough supply to match demand in the region but what is clear from our figures is that more investment is needed if supply is to keep up with demand. As discussed in my blog here, Japanese utilities are now considering upstream investment to secure the supply they will need. In addition, the offer of 10 to 15-year offtake contracts from Japanese users, which have secured Feed-in-Tariff subsidy, will attract investors to back new supply capacity. So far, the trend has been that Japanese utilities have signed supply contracts with well-established industry players such as Engie, Pinnacle and Enviva (often through the Japanese trading houses) but perhaps we will see more newcomers to the industry as buyers widen their net.
另一个问题是产能是否能够足够快地上线？东南亚市场已经证明它可以迅速建立新的产能。最明显的例子是越南在6年内向韩国出口达100倍，2017年向韩国出口超过150万吨。大多数出口的颗粒来自几家小型工厂，通常不到2万吨/年。马来西亚、泰国和印度尼西亚也迅速扩大了产能并持续。再次，供应主要是许多小型工厂。通过在现有锯木厂建造颗粒厂，俄罗斯的供应能力也迅速增长，通过利用现有基础设施和轻松获取原材料节省了时间和成本。俄罗斯主要供应欧洲供热市场，但最近的扩张一直关注亚洲市场。供应商已经出现支持韩国现货市场，但很少有长期承购合同。
A further question is whether capacity can be brought online fast enough? The South East Asia market has demonstrated that it can build new capacity rapidly. The clearest example is Vietnam which grew its exports to South Korea 100 times over in the space of six years, sending over 1.5Mt to Korea in 2017. Most pellets sent for export are collected from several small mills, usually less than 20kt/y. Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia have also expanded their capacity quickly and continue to do so. Again, supply is dominated by lots of small mills. Russia has also seen swift growth in its supply capacity by building pellet mills at existing sawmills, saving time and costs by utilising existing infrastructure and having easy access to raw materials. Russia mainly supplies the European heating market, but recent expansions have been with an eye on the Asian market. (Subscribers can read more in Forest Energy Monitor #87, p.7). Suppliers have emerged to support the South Korean spot market, but few have long-term offtake contracts.
相比之下，加拿大市场已经扩大，以满足日益增长的日本需求。日本买家青睐加拿大供应的安全性，但北美的工厂规模较大（通常超过30万吨/年），以利用规模经济，意味着进展有点慢。通常必须筹集大量资金，这需要广泛的尽职调查和安全的承购合同，而且规划过程可能需要比世界其他地区更长的时间。虽然加拿大西部超过每年100万吨的项目正在开发中，但如果需要迅速找到大量供应，日本将无法完全依赖加拿大。
In contrast, the Canadian market has expanded to help meet growing Japanese demand. Japanese buyers have favoured the security of Canadian supply but the larger scale of plants in North America (often over 300kt/y), to take advantage of economies of scale, means progress is a little slower. Normally significant funds must be raised which needs extensive due diligence and secure offtake contracts, plus the planning processes can take longer than in other parts of the world. Although western Canada has over 1Mt/y of projects in development, Japan will not be able to rely solely on Canada if it needs to find significant supply quickly.
亚洲生物质的需求正在快速增长。问题是，是否有足够的生物质供应来满足它？ 在这里，将探讨该地区木屑颗粒的供需平衡以及未来几年的前景。
As we have discussed in our series of blogs on the Asian biomass market, demand is growing rapidly in the region. This poses the question, will there be enough biomass supply to meet it? Here I will look at the supply-demand balance for wood pellets in the region and the outlook for the coming years.
我们的估计表明亚洲的工业颗粒需求在2018年可能达到490万吨，比2017年增加49％。韩国和日本的颗粒需求预计将继续增长。我们估计它可能会在2027年达到1300万吨。有几个因素会影响所有需求是否实现，最重要的可能是生物质的可用性。
Our estimates indicate that industrial pellet demand in Asia could reach 4.9Mt in 2018, an increase of +49% on 2017. And South Korean and Japanese pellet demand is expected to continue to grow beyond that. We estimate it could rise to 13Mt in 2027. Several factors will impact whether all that demand materialises, with perhaps the most important being the availability of biomass.
我们的2018年第二季度木屑颗粒观察报告的数据显示,全球有4400万吨/年的木屑颗粒生产能力（供暖和工业），其中近600万吨是亚洲，澳大利亚和加拿大西部的工业产能。有关各国供应能力和项目的更深入细分，请参阅亚太生物质报告。
Data from our Q2 2018 Outlook for Wood Pellets report shows that globally there is 44Mt/y of wood pellet production capacity (heating and industrial) and almost 6Mt/y of that is industrial capacity in Asia, Australia and western Canada. For a more in-depth breakdown of supply capacity and projects in the pipeline by country please refer to our Asia Pacific biomass report.
目前有足够的供应来满足该地区的需求，但从我们的数据可以清楚地看出，如果供应能够满足需求，则需要更多的投资。日本公用事业公司正在考虑上游投资以确保他们所需的供应。此外，日本用户提供10至15年的承购合同，这些合同已获得关税补贴，将吸引投资者支持新的供应能力。到目前为止，趋势是日本公用事业公司已经与Engie，Pinnacle和Enviva（通常通过日本贸易公司）等知名行业参与者签订了供应合同，但随着买家扩大其净值，我们可能会看到更多的新成员。
Currently there is enough supply to match demand in the region but what is clear from our figures is that more investment is needed if supply is to keep up with demand. As discussed in my blog here, Japanese utilities are now considering upstream investment to secure the supply they will need. In addition, the offer of 10 to 15-year offtake contracts from Japanese users, which have secured Feed-in-Tariff subsidy, will attract investors to back new supply capacity. So far, the trend has been that Japanese utilities have signed supply contracts with well-established industry players such as Engie, Pinnacle and Enviva (often through the Japanese trading houses) but perhaps we will see more newcomers to the industry as buyers widen their net.
另一个问题是产能是否能够足够快地上线？东南亚市场已经证明它可以迅速建立新的产能。最明显的例子是越南在6年内向韩国出口达100倍，2017年向韩国出口超过150万吨。大多数出口的颗粒来自几家小型工厂，通常不到2万吨/年。马来西亚、泰国和印度尼西亚也迅速扩大了产能并持续。再次，供应主要是许多小型工厂。通过在现有锯木厂建造颗粒厂，俄罗斯的供应能力也迅速增长，通过利用现有基础设施和轻松获取原材料节省了时间和成本。俄罗斯主要供应欧洲供热市场，但最近的扩张一直关注亚洲市场。供应商已经出现支持韩国现货市场，但很少有长期承购合同。
A further question is whether capacity can be brought online fast enough? The South East Asia market has demonstrated that it can build new capacity rapidly. The clearest example is Vietnam which grew its exports to South Korea 100 times over in the space of six years, sending over 1.5Mt to Korea in 2017. Most pellets sent for export are collected from several small mills, usually less than 20kt/y. Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia have also expanded their capacity quickly and continue to do so. Again, supply is dominated by lots of small mills. Russia has also seen swift growth in its supply capacity by building pellet mills at existing sawmills, saving time and costs by utilising existing infrastructure and having easy access to raw materials. Russia mainly supplies the European heating market, but recent expansions have been with an eye on the Asian market. (Subscribers can read more in Forest Energy Monitor #87, p.7). Suppliers have emerged to support the South Korean spot market, but few have long-term offtake contracts.
相比之下，加拿大市场已经扩大，以满足日益增长的日本需求。日本买家青睐加拿大供应的安全性，但北美的工厂规模较大（通常超过30万吨/年），以利用规模经济，意味着进展有点慢。通常必须筹集大量资金，这需要广泛的尽职调查和安全的承购合同，而且规划过程可能需要比世界其他地区更长的时间。虽然加拿大西部超过每年100万吨的项目正在开发中，但如果需要迅速找到大量供应，日本将无法完全依赖加拿大。
In contrast, the Canadian market has expanded to help meet growing Japanese demand. Japanese buyers have favoured the security of Canadian supply but the larger scale of plants in North America (often over 300kt/y), to take advantage of economies of scale, means progress is a little slower. Normally significant funds must be raised which needs extensive due diligence and secure offtake contracts, plus the planning processes can take longer than in other parts of the world. Although western Canada has over 1Mt/y of projects in development, Japan will not be able to rely solely on Canada if it needs to find significant supply quickly.
全球各个发展阶段的工业产能超过1840万吨。如果所有都上线，工业产能将在现在的基础上增长84％，但如果要实现预测需求水平，所有这些必须在2026年开发。但是，该行业的短期情况将更具挑战性。在2019年，需求和供应似乎非常平衡，根据我们的计算，2020年可能出现供应短缺，这意味着计划的项目必须迅速发展。
There is over 18.4Mt/y of industrial capacity in various stages of development globally. If all were to come online, industrial capacity would grow +84% from today but all of that must be developed by 2026 if forecast levels of demand are to be realised. However, the short-term situation for the industry will be more challenging. Demand and supply appear to be very finely balanced in 2019 and, according to our calculations, there could be a deficit in supply in 2020, meaning the planned projects must be developed quickly.
There is over 18.4Mt/y of industrial capacity in various stages of development globally. If all were to come online, industrial capacity would grow +84% from today but all of that must be developed by 2026 if forecast levels of demand are to be realised. However, the short-term situation for the industry will be more challenging. Demand and supply appear to be very finely balanced in 2019 and, according to our calculations, there could be a deficit in supply in 2020, meaning the planned projects must be developed quickly.
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